الملخص
Forecasting of future behavior of time series is one of the important subjects in statistical sciences, due to its important need in different areas of life. As the Interest in forecasting had increased in the recent years. And since the Evaporation is an important climate element , so that this research aims to find appropriate predictive model for Evaporation .
This study aims to find appropriate predictive model for Evaporation using statistical models depending on Minitab 16 program and we noticed that there is an increasing trend and the time series is not stable. In this study , We used (box- jenkines) method in time series analysis and definition Seasonal Autoregressive integrated Moving Average Models (SARIMA) (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)S for available data, and we find out that the model SARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,0)12 is the appropriate model for monthly Data were obtained from Homs climate station.